New Poll Shows Even Split Between Voters on Marriage Amendment

The poll was conducted between Oct. 23 and Oct. 25

According to a new poll commissioned by the Star-Tribune, support and opposition to the marriage amendment is essentially tied.

The amendment would write a prohibition on legal recognition of same-sex marriages into the state constitution, reflecting current law.

Of 800 likely Minnesota voters, 48 percent told the Minnesota Poll's questioners that they would be voting to pass the amendment and 47 percent said they opposed the measure; five percent said they were still undecided. The poll was conducted between Oct. 23 and Oct. 25, and respondents were reached using both cell phones and landlines. The poll's margin of error was 3.5 percent, plus or minus.

September's Minnesota Poll also showed a deadlock between the two sides.

Poll Date Support Oppose Undecided Number Surveyed Margin of Error Star-Tribune 5/5/11 39% 55% 7% 809 +/- 4.7% KSTP/SurveyUSA 5/24/11 51% 40% 10% 552 Not reported Star-Tribune 11/8/11 48% 43% 9% 807 +/- 4/4% Public Policy Polling 1/21/12 48% 44% 8% 1,236 +/- 2.8% KSTP/SurveyUSA 2/2/12 47% 39% 4% 542 +/- 4.3% Public Policy Polling 6/3/12 43% 49% 8% 937 +/- 3.1% KSTP/SurveyUSA 7/19/12 52% 37% 6% 552 +/- 4.3% KSTP/SurveyUSA 9/11/12 50% 43% 8% 551

+/- 4.3%

Star-Tribune 9/17 to 9/19, 2012 49% 47% 4% 800

+/- 3.5

Star-Tribune 10/23 to 10/25, 2012 48% 47% 5% 800

+/- 3.5%

Supporters of the amendment told the Star-Tribune that "our side has been historically under-represented" in polls on the issue. Opponents said they were placing their faith in Minnesotans' "values of freedom and treating others as you would want to be treated" when voters go to the polls.

Roughly 56 percent of respondents said their faith leaders' positions on the amendment didn't strongly influence their votes. Perhaps surprisingly, over two-thirds of those voters told pollsters they planned on voting "No."

Respondents who had a friend or family member who was gay or lesbian were dramatically more likely to vote against the amendment, supporting a amendment opponent's key strategy of encouraging supporters to have conversations with potential amendment supporters describing how their LGBT friends would be impacted by the amendment.

tom October 29, 2012 at 10:58 PM
Serena Johnson October 30, 2012 at 12:20 AM
The weird rule we have here might be what decides it. For an amendment to pass it needs over 50% of ballots cast. So, if you vote for president or senator, but not the amendment you are essentially voting no. It's all explained on the ballot. The general idea behind the law is that it is really hard to remove an amendment, so it should be hard to add one. It might help us be the first state to shoot this type of amendment down.


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